The global financial system is facing reconstruction. How should China respond?
Author： Publication Time：2019-01-04Reading volume：2616【SmallMediumLarge】
The dust of the "two rooms" (Fannimi and Freddie Mac) has not yet settled. Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and created a new shock wave; Merrill Lynch has just hid under the Bank of America, and AIG has been taken over by the US government... To make matters worse, people don't know how many such financial giants on Wall Street are already ill. If the "elephant" of the US financial market falls down, the consequences are undoubtedly disastrous.
Text label：The global financial system is facing reconstruction. How should China respond?
The dust of the "two rooms" (Fannimi and Freddie Mac) has not yet settled. Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy and created a new shock wave; Merrill Lynch has just hid under the Bank of America, and AIG has been taken over by the US government... To make matters worse, people don't know how many such financial giants on Wall Street are already ill. If the "elephant" of the US financial market falls down, the consequences are undoubtedly disastrous.
Today, with the development of economic globalization, China's economy is unlikely to be immune to it. It is necessary to take countermeasures to ensure the continued stable development of the economy. So, how much will the subprime mortgage crisis affect the global and China's economic and financial systems? What measures should China take to respond? With questions of concern to the people, the reporter interviewed Ba Shusong, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the Development Research Center of the State Council.
The United States and the global economy have entered a significant adjustment cycle
Shanghai Securities News: How much impact will the subprime mortgage crisis have on the global economy?
Ba Shusong: At present, the US financial market is undergoing a sharp downward adjustment driven by the subprime mortgage crisis. The entire economic adjustment is shifting from the impact on the financial market to the impact on the US real economy.
This is mainly reflected in the weak US economic growth and rising unemployment rate, and the US real estate prices, which are still in a downturn stage, which may eventually directly affect the normal loans that the US banking industry originally considered to be less risky. According to the latest data released by the US Department of Labor, after the unemployment rate rose to 5.7% in July, the unemployment rate in the United States further rose to 6.1% in August, and the number of non-agricultural employment decreased by 84,000, a record high in the past five years.
Based on this judgment, with the spread of the new round of subprime mortgage crisis, the financial crisis will gradually spread into a global economic recession.
First, the shrinking real estate investment will seriously drag down the US economy. With the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, US real estate prices have further declined. Up to now, US housing investment has experienced negative growth for more than two consecutive years, and the investment scale has decreased by nearly 40%. At the same time, rising market risks and tight liquidity will prompt financial institutions to reduce the scale of loans, which will drag down the growth of the US economy.
Second, the decline in consumption will accelerate the rate of decline in the US economy. Due to the long-term implementation of the “double deficit” policy, the US consumption rate has remained at a relatively high level, and personal consumption expenditure accounts for more than 70% of GDP, which is a typical domestic demand-driven economy. Under the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, the wealth effect of the capital market will disappear, and even the reaction to the economy, coupled with the rise in the unemployment rate and the expected decline in income, will inevitably lead to a decline in the level of household consumption, which will form a larger trend in the US economy. The impact.
Third, the depreciation of the dollar and the drastic fluctuations in international primary products and oil prices will have a negative impact on the global growth pattern. The impact is likely to come mainly from developing countries and regions. Some high-resource-dependent industries are likely to pay a very heavy adjustment price in this high oil price shock. At present, this adjustment pressure has just emerged, and we need to be prepared as soon as possible.
Fourth, the proliferation effect of the subprime mortgage crisis is gradually spreading to the whole world, driving the overall decline of the global economy. First of all, the EU, Canada and Japan have close economic relations with the United States. Their major financial institutions hold a large number of subprime-backed securities. There have been many cases of financial institutions going bankrupt, and their capital market adjustments have even exceeded that of the United States. Second, the US dollar pair The depreciation of the euro and the yen has exported inflation to these countries. The United States is already in the channel of interest rate cuts. The EU and Japan have little room for interest rate hikes. The economy will be tested by both recession and inflation. Finally, the United States, the European Union and other developed countries The economic recession has weakened the consumption power of residents and the demand for imported goods has decreased. This will have a big impact on export-oriented emerging countries. The decline of China’s exports this year has been affected by this factor.
The global financial market system is facing a new round of innovation
2018-10-24
166 Reading volume
